Tuesday May 22, 2007
EUR-USD
1.3468. It should see a sell off to below 1.3428 while 1.3476 area curtails its upside. A break beyond 1.3517 will abort the downside.
USD-CHF
1.2306. Current rise should end around 1.2302 or 1.2335. Objectives of this downmove are 1.2274 or 1.2241. A rise above 1.2363 is again bullish.
USD-JPY
121.47. Currently uptrend should end around 121.61 - 121.70 area. A correction down to below 121.17 is expected. A rise above 121.92 will abort the expected correction.
GBP-USD
1.9715. Current fall is near an end of wave around 1.9673 - 1.9712 zone, a rally should then procede to above 1.9736 or 1.9755. Fall below 1.9637 would cancel this scenario.
EUR-CHF
1.6574. Decline should be supported around 1.6542 - 1.6511 zone for rally to above 1.6645. A clear break of 1.6511 will damage this expected rally.
EUR-JPY
163.60. Corrective dips should ideally halt near 163.59 or 163.42 for one more thrust upwards towards 163.76 - 163.94 area or 164.27 in extention. Fall below 163.26 puts it back on a downward path.
EUR-GBP
0.6831. Preferred outlook is for a drift down to below 0.6806. Resistances are at 0.6831 and 0.6835. A rise above 0.6848 would delay but not abort this expected fall.
AUD-USD
0.8219. It should trade higher to above 0.8250 while 0.8216 offer support. Minor support at 0.8200. Stop Loss below 0.8150 zone.
USD-CAD
1.0846. It may meet resistance in 1.0846 - 1.0858 zone for a drift down to 1.0811 zone, after which bounce to 1.0873 is anticipated.
disclaimer
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any views expressed may change without notice.
This document is provided to you for information purposes only and may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose.
Monday, May 21, 2007
Sunday, May 20, 2007
FOREX MARKET UPDATE 21/05/07
Monday May 21, 2007
EUR-USD
1.3511. It should trade higher to 1.3533 or above 1.3555 in extention. Supports at 1.3488 and 1.3499. Stop loss below 1.3477 zone
USD-CHF
1.2272. Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.2278 or 1.2303 if support around 1.2266 hold. After which a pullback to 1.2266 - 1.2258 zone is possible.
USD-JPY
121.08. It should be subject to more sell off towards 120.72 or 120.37. Corrective upward swings should face resistance around 121.15 area. A break of 121.58 is bullish.
GBP-USD
1.9751. It should trade higher to 1.9786 or above 1.9820 in extention. Supports at 1.9726 and 1.9743. Stop loss below 1.9709 zone
EUR-CHF
1.6580. Market looks set for gains towards 1.6599 or above in extension. Dips should find support at 1.6564 - 1.6554 zone.
EUR-JPY
163.61. It should trade higher to 164.12 or above 164.64 in extention. Supports at 163.11 and 163.37. Stop loss below 162.85 zone
EUR-GBP
0.6840. A corrective/consolidation activity between 0.6827 and 0.6846 is likely for a while.
AUD-USD
0.8238. It should be subject to more sell off towards 0.8211 or 0.8183. Corrective upward swings should face resistance around 0.8249 area. A break of 0.82735 is bullish.
USD-CAD
1.0894. It should see a sell off to below 1.0848 while 1.0924 area curtails its upside. A break beyond 1.0971 will abort the downside.
disclaimer
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any views expressed may change without notice.
This document is provided to you for information purposes only and may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose.
EUR-USD
1.3511. It should trade higher to 1.3533 or above 1.3555 in extention. Supports at 1.3488 and 1.3499. Stop loss below 1.3477 zone
USD-CHF
1.2272. Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.2278 or 1.2303 if support around 1.2266 hold. After which a pullback to 1.2266 - 1.2258 zone is possible.
USD-JPY
121.08. It should be subject to more sell off towards 120.72 or 120.37. Corrective upward swings should face resistance around 121.15 area. A break of 121.58 is bullish.
GBP-USD
1.9751. It should trade higher to 1.9786 or above 1.9820 in extention. Supports at 1.9726 and 1.9743. Stop loss below 1.9709 zone
EUR-CHF
1.6580. Market looks set for gains towards 1.6599 or above in extension. Dips should find support at 1.6564 - 1.6554 zone.
EUR-JPY
163.61. It should trade higher to 164.12 or above 164.64 in extention. Supports at 163.11 and 163.37. Stop loss below 162.85 zone
EUR-GBP
0.6840. A corrective/consolidation activity between 0.6827 and 0.6846 is likely for a while.
AUD-USD
0.8238. It should be subject to more sell off towards 0.8211 or 0.8183. Corrective upward swings should face resistance around 0.8249 area. A break of 0.82735 is bullish.
USD-CAD
1.0894. It should see a sell off to below 1.0848 while 1.0924 area curtails its upside. A break beyond 1.0971 will abort the downside.
disclaimer
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any views expressed may change without notice.
This document is provided to you for information purposes only and may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose.
FOREX MARKET UPDATE 21/05/07
Monday May 21, 2007
EUR-USD
1.3511. It should trade higher to 1.3533 or above 1.3555 in extention. Supports at 1.3488 and 1.3499. Stop loss below 1.3477 zone
USD-CHF
1.2272. Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.2278 or 1.2303 if support around 1.2266 hold. After which a pullback to 1.2266 - 1.2258 zone is possible.
USD-JPY
121.08. It should be subject to more sell off towards 120.72 or 120.37. Corrective upward swings should face resistance around 121.15 area. A break of 121.58 is bullish.
GBP-USD
1.9751. It should trade higher to 1.9786 or above 1.9820 in extention. Supports at 1.9726 and 1.9743. Stop loss below 1.9709 zone
EUR-CHF
1.6580. Market looks set for gains towards 1.6599 or above in extension. Dips should find support at 1.6564 - 1.6554 zone.
EUR-JPY
163.61. It should trade higher to 164.12 or above 164.64 in extention. Supports at 163.11 and 163.37. Stop loss below 162.85 zone
EUR-GBP
0.6840. A corrective/consolidation activity between 0.6827 and 0.6846 is likely for a while.
AUD-USD
0.8238. It should be subject to more sell off towards 0.8211 or 0.8183. Corrective upward swings should face resistance around 0.8249 area. A break of 0.82735 is bullish.
USD-CAD
1.0894. It should see a sell off to below 1.0848 while 1.0924 area curtails its upside. A break beyond 1.0971 will abort the downside.
disclaimer
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any views expressed may change without notice.
This document is provided to you for information purposes only and may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose.
EUR-USD
1.3511. It should trade higher to 1.3533 or above 1.3555 in extention. Supports at 1.3488 and 1.3499. Stop loss below 1.3477 zone
USD-CHF
1.2272. Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.2278 or 1.2303 if support around 1.2266 hold. After which a pullback to 1.2266 - 1.2258 zone is possible.
USD-JPY
121.08. It should be subject to more sell off towards 120.72 or 120.37. Corrective upward swings should face resistance around 121.15 area. A break of 121.58 is bullish.
GBP-USD
1.9751. It should trade higher to 1.9786 or above 1.9820 in extention. Supports at 1.9726 and 1.9743. Stop loss below 1.9709 zone
EUR-CHF
1.6580. Market looks set for gains towards 1.6599 or above in extension. Dips should find support at 1.6564 - 1.6554 zone.
EUR-JPY
163.61. It should trade higher to 164.12 or above 164.64 in extention. Supports at 163.11 and 163.37. Stop loss below 162.85 zone
EUR-GBP
0.6840. A corrective/consolidation activity between 0.6827 and 0.6846 is likely for a while.
AUD-USD
0.8238. It should be subject to more sell off towards 0.8211 or 0.8183. Corrective upward swings should face resistance around 0.8249 area. A break of 0.82735 is bullish.
USD-CAD
1.0894. It should see a sell off to below 1.0848 while 1.0924 area curtails its upside. A break beyond 1.0971 will abort the downside.
disclaimer
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any views expressed may change without notice.
This document is provided to you for information purposes only and may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose.
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
FUNDAMENTAL MARKET UPDATE FOR 17/05/07
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR 17/05/07
1. Thursday, May 17th, 2007 (7:00 am New York Time) CANADA
We have CPI figures coming out of Canada. Inflation is the hot topic all over the world, and Canada is definitely included. The number to focus on will probably be the core month over month inflation, that's expected at 0.1%. If the inflation comes out at 0.4% or higher, it may possibly drive USD/CAD down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. A reading of -0.2% or more negative, may possibly drive USD/CAD up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Even smaller triggers such as deviations of 0.2% either direction or 0.1% either direction may cause a decent move, but the other numbers will have to be taken into consideration as well. Though 0.3% deviation is a pretty good bad that even with other numbers conflicting, we should see a good move in the right direction.
2. Thursday, May 17th, 2007 (9:30 am New York Time) USA
Then we have Bernanke that will be speaking about subprime mortgage problems in the US. I personally won't be trading this one, because everybody knows about these problems, and I believe that it's fully priced into the markets, and if he is being optimistic about the problems, I am not sure if markets will believe him. So we may see very choppy price action, or we may even see large breakout move after this speech, but it's just too much rick for my taste. So I'll stay out.
3. Thursday, May 17th, 2007 (12:00 pm New York Time) USA
Then we have Philadelphia Fed Index coming out, that's expected to come out at 3.5. A lot of economists care about this indicator and observe it, and it can cause a move in the US dollar, if it comes out particularly surprising, but the biggest problem is that it rarely comes out surprising. This indicator is very timely. It's only May 17th, and it's already coming out for May. If the number comes out at 20 or higher, it may possibly move GBP/USD down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report, since it would be the highest reading in over 2 years. If the number comes out at -15 or lower, it would be the lowest reading since end of 2001, and GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Smaller deviations may very possibly cause smaller moves, so perhaps a deviation of 10, can possibly give a move of 20 pips or more, et cetera. My exact triggers will depend on where the price is at before the report.
4. Thursday, May 17th, 2007 (7:50 pm New York Time) JAPAN
Then we have Tertiary Index coming out of Japan, which measures industrial performance in Japan. It's expected to come out at -0.8% or so. If it comes out at 0% or higher, USD/JPY may possibly go down by 25 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at -2% or more negative, USD/JPY may possibly go up by 25 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Be careful with less conservative triggers on this one, and don't try to jump on it right away if you have to pay high spread. This one is slow, and may take its time to fully manifest.
1. Thursday, May 17th, 2007 (7:00 am New York Time) CANADA
We have CPI figures coming out of Canada. Inflation is the hot topic all over the world, and Canada is definitely included. The number to focus on will probably be the core month over month inflation, that's expected at 0.1%. If the inflation comes out at 0.4% or higher, it may possibly drive USD/CAD down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. A reading of -0.2% or more negative, may possibly drive USD/CAD up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Even smaller triggers such as deviations of 0.2% either direction or 0.1% either direction may cause a decent move, but the other numbers will have to be taken into consideration as well. Though 0.3% deviation is a pretty good bad that even with other numbers conflicting, we should see a good move in the right direction.
2. Thursday, May 17th, 2007 (9:30 am New York Time) USA
Then we have Bernanke that will be speaking about subprime mortgage problems in the US. I personally won't be trading this one, because everybody knows about these problems, and I believe that it's fully priced into the markets, and if he is being optimistic about the problems, I am not sure if markets will believe him. So we may see very choppy price action, or we may even see large breakout move after this speech, but it's just too much rick for my taste. So I'll stay out.
3. Thursday, May 17th, 2007 (12:00 pm New York Time) USA
Then we have Philadelphia Fed Index coming out, that's expected to come out at 3.5. A lot of economists care about this indicator and observe it, and it can cause a move in the US dollar, if it comes out particularly surprising, but the biggest problem is that it rarely comes out surprising. This indicator is very timely. It's only May 17th, and it's already coming out for May. If the number comes out at 20 or higher, it may possibly move GBP/USD down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report, since it would be the highest reading in over 2 years. If the number comes out at -15 or lower, it would be the lowest reading since end of 2001, and GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Smaller deviations may very possibly cause smaller moves, so perhaps a deviation of 10, can possibly give a move of 20 pips or more, et cetera. My exact triggers will depend on where the price is at before the report.
4. Thursday, May 17th, 2007 (7:50 pm New York Time) JAPAN
Then we have Tertiary Index coming out of Japan, which measures industrial performance in Japan. It's expected to come out at -0.8% or so. If it comes out at 0% or higher, USD/JPY may possibly go down by 25 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at -2% or more negative, USD/JPY may possibly go up by 25 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Be careful with less conservative triggers on this one, and don't try to jump on it right away if you have to pay high spread. This one is slow, and may take its time to fully manifest.
FOREX MARKET UPDATE 17/05/07
Thursday May 17, 2007
EUR-USD
1.3515. There is bearish potential for a fall to 1.3476 while 1.3543 - 1.3562 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 1.3562 or 1.3581 is expected.
USD-CHF
1.2236. It should trade higher to 1.2276 while 1.2208 or 1.2188 offers support. Stop loss below 1.2167 zone.
USD-JPY
120.83. Current rise seems to be over near 120.84 or 121.06 for a retracement towards 120.61 - 120.50 area.
GBP-USD
1.9769. Prefer a fall to 1.9764 or 1.9726. Then a correction to 1.9822 is anticipated. A clear break of 1.9684 is again bearish.
EUR-CHF
1.6537. Current rise should end around 1.6532 or 1.6558. Objectives of this downmove are 1.6512 or 1.6486. A rise above 1.6578 is again bullish.
EUR-JPY
163.29. Our preferred outlook is for a drift down to 162.98 or below 162.66. Resistances are at 163.29 and 163.43. A rise above 163.75 would delay but not abort this expected fall.
EUR-GBP
0.6835. Our preferred outlook is for a drift down to 0.6825 or below 0.6814. Resistances are at 0.6835 and 0.6841. A rise above 0.6852 would delay but not abort this expected fall.
AUD-USD
0.8243. Overall structure is bearish. Decelerating momentum could attract it towards supports at 0.8218 or 0.8204. Major support is clustered around 0.8151 limit.
USD-CAD
1.1046. Corrective dips should ideally halt near 1.1026 or 1.1008 for one more thrust upwards towards 1.1055 - 1.1083 area or 1.1120 in extention. Fall below 1.0989 puts it back on a downward path.
EUR-USD
1.3515. There is bearish potential for a fall to 1.3476 while 1.3543 - 1.3562 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 1.3562 or 1.3581 is expected.
USD-CHF
1.2236. It should trade higher to 1.2276 while 1.2208 or 1.2188 offers support. Stop loss below 1.2167 zone.
USD-JPY
120.83. Current rise seems to be over near 120.84 or 121.06 for a retracement towards 120.61 - 120.50 area.
GBP-USD
1.9769. Prefer a fall to 1.9764 or 1.9726. Then a correction to 1.9822 is anticipated. A clear break of 1.9684 is again bearish.
EUR-CHF
1.6537. Current rise should end around 1.6532 or 1.6558. Objectives of this downmove are 1.6512 or 1.6486. A rise above 1.6578 is again bullish.
EUR-JPY
163.29. Our preferred outlook is for a drift down to 162.98 or below 162.66. Resistances are at 163.29 and 163.43. A rise above 163.75 would delay but not abort this expected fall.
EUR-GBP
0.6835. Our preferred outlook is for a drift down to 0.6825 or below 0.6814. Resistances are at 0.6835 and 0.6841. A rise above 0.6852 would delay but not abort this expected fall.
AUD-USD
0.8243. Overall structure is bearish. Decelerating momentum could attract it towards supports at 0.8218 or 0.8204. Major support is clustered around 0.8151 limit.
USD-CAD
1.1046. Corrective dips should ideally halt near 1.1026 or 1.1008 for one more thrust upwards towards 1.1055 - 1.1083 area or 1.1120 in extention. Fall below 1.0989 puts it back on a downward path.
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
1. Wednesday, May 16th, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UKWe have UK unemployment rate coming out, together with some earnings indicators. It's expected that the rate will be at 5.5%, like it has been for the last 5 months. If it comes out at 5.7% or more, it would be the highest unemployment in over 10 years, and GBP/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If the number comes out at 5.3% or lower, it would be the lowest unemployment since April of 2006, and GBP/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
2. Wednesday, May 16th, 2007 (5:30 am New York Time) UKThen we have inflation report coming out of the UK. All I can tell you is stay out of the market during that time, if you don't know what you are doing. Since there is no specific numbers anybody is expecting, the move will depend on what the comments are, and they can be anything, so I can't give you a cookie cutter formula on how to trade this one.But basically, hints of escalating inflation and future hikes will probably drive GBP/USD up, and hints of moderating inflation and no need for future hikes, will probably drive GBP/USD down.
3. Wednesday, May 16th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
Then we have housing starts coming out of the US. As you know, housing has been a painful subject for the US, and in April, they are expecting it to come out at around 1480K versus 1518K the previous month. If the housing starts comes out at 1680K or higher, it would be a huge deviation from consensus, and would be the highest reading since September of 2006, so GBP/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. If the number comes out at 1290K or lower, it would be the lowest reading in a very long time, and would be a siginificant deviation from expectations, so GBP/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more. We also have building permits coming out at the same time, which may cause some possible conflicts, and possibly mute the move. So watch out for that.
4. Wednesday, May 16th, 2007 (9:15 am New York Time) USA
Then we have Industrial Production coming out of the US. This indicator is a dog, and I don't recommend trading it. So just be aware of the volatility.
5. Wednesday, May 16th, 2007 (7:50 pm New York Time) JAPAN
Then we have Japanese GDP coming out for the first quarter of 2007. This is a preliminary estimate, and the most important one, since that's when usually the biggest deviations happen. This is a red hot indicator for Japan. Very possibly the best mover of the yen. It's expected that GDP will come out at 0.7%. If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, it would be a huge positive surprise, especially back to back after previous reading of 1.3%, and USD/JPY may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 0.3% or lower, it would be a surprisingly low number, and USD/JPY may possibly increase by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
1. Wednesday, May 16th, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UKWe have UK unemployment rate coming out, together with some earnings indicators. It's expected that the rate will be at 5.5%, like it has been for the last 5 months. If it comes out at 5.7% or more, it would be the highest unemployment in over 10 years, and GBP/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If the number comes out at 5.3% or lower, it would be the lowest unemployment since April of 2006, and GBP/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
2. Wednesday, May 16th, 2007 (5:30 am New York Time) UKThen we have inflation report coming out of the UK. All I can tell you is stay out of the market during that time, if you don't know what you are doing. Since there is no specific numbers anybody is expecting, the move will depend on what the comments are, and they can be anything, so I can't give you a cookie cutter formula on how to trade this one.But basically, hints of escalating inflation and future hikes will probably drive GBP/USD up, and hints of moderating inflation and no need for future hikes, will probably drive GBP/USD down.
3. Wednesday, May 16th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
Then we have housing starts coming out of the US. As you know, housing has been a painful subject for the US, and in April, they are expecting it to come out at around 1480K versus 1518K the previous month. If the housing starts comes out at 1680K or higher, it would be a huge deviation from consensus, and would be the highest reading since September of 2006, so GBP/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. If the number comes out at 1290K or lower, it would be the lowest reading in a very long time, and would be a siginificant deviation from expectations, so GBP/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more. We also have building permits coming out at the same time, which may cause some possible conflicts, and possibly mute the move. So watch out for that.
4. Wednesday, May 16th, 2007 (9:15 am New York Time) USA
Then we have Industrial Production coming out of the US. This indicator is a dog, and I don't recommend trading it. So just be aware of the volatility.
5. Wednesday, May 16th, 2007 (7:50 pm New York Time) JAPAN
Then we have Japanese GDP coming out for the first quarter of 2007. This is a preliminary estimate, and the most important one, since that's when usually the biggest deviations happen. This is a red hot indicator for Japan. Very possibly the best mover of the yen. It's expected that GDP will come out at 0.7%. If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, it would be a huge positive surprise, especially back to back after previous reading of 1.3%, and USD/JPY may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 0.3% or lower, it would be a surprisingly low number, and USD/JPY may possibly increase by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
FOREX MARKET UPDATE 16/05/07
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON MAJOR PAIRS
Wednesday May 16, 2007
EUR-USD
1.3591. Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.3615 or 1.3658 if support around 1.3576 hold. After which a pullback to 1.3576 - 1.3559 zone is possible.
USD-CHF
1.2154. Market should pop up towards 1.2196 or 1.2237 this bullish scenario would be damaged if 1.2133 - 1.2132 zone is broken, a severe break down could then occur.
USD-JPY
120.27. Our preferred outlook is for a drift down to 120.07 or below 119.86. Resistances are at 120.27 and 120.32. A rise above 120.53 would delay but not abort this expected fall.
GBP-USD
1.9859. Market looks set for gains towards 1.9906 or above in extension. Dips should find support at 1.9826 - 1.9803 zone.
EUR-CHF
1.6518. Current upmove should end around 1.6530 - 1.6541 area. A correction down to below 1.6490 or even 1.6462 is expected. A rise above 1.6564 will abort the expected correction.
EUR-JPY
163.45. Current upmove should end around 163.77 - 163.85 area. A correction down to below 162.86 or even 162.26 is expected. A rise above 164.24 will abort the expected correction.
EUR-GBP
0.6843. Decline should be supported around 0.6833 - 0.6822 zone for rally to above 0.6866. A clear break of 0.6822 will damage this expected rally.
AUD-USD
0.8339. It should trade lower to 0.8312. Resistances are at 0.8344 and 0.8357. A break of 0.8366 is bullish.
USD-CAD
1.0986. It is likely to attempt nearer support at 1.0943 for extending further to below 1.09 while below 1.0986 - 1.1030 area. Rise above 1.1051 would dampen this bearish expectation.
Wednesday May 16, 2007
EUR-USD
1.3591. Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.3615 or 1.3658 if support around 1.3576 hold. After which a pullback to 1.3576 - 1.3559 zone is possible.
USD-CHF
1.2154. Market should pop up towards 1.2196 or 1.2237 this bullish scenario would be damaged if 1.2133 - 1.2132 zone is broken, a severe break down could then occur.
USD-JPY
120.27. Our preferred outlook is for a drift down to 120.07 or below 119.86. Resistances are at 120.27 and 120.32. A rise above 120.53 would delay but not abort this expected fall.
GBP-USD
1.9859. Market looks set for gains towards 1.9906 or above in extension. Dips should find support at 1.9826 - 1.9803 zone.
EUR-CHF
1.6518. Current upmove should end around 1.6530 - 1.6541 area. A correction down to below 1.6490 or even 1.6462 is expected. A rise above 1.6564 will abort the expected correction.
EUR-JPY
163.45. Current upmove should end around 163.77 - 163.85 area. A correction down to below 162.86 or even 162.26 is expected. A rise above 164.24 will abort the expected correction.
EUR-GBP
0.6843. Decline should be supported around 0.6833 - 0.6822 zone for rally to above 0.6866. A clear break of 0.6822 will damage this expected rally.
AUD-USD
0.8339. It should trade lower to 0.8312. Resistances are at 0.8344 and 0.8357. A break of 0.8366 is bullish.
USD-CAD
1.0986. It is likely to attempt nearer support at 1.0943 for extending further to below 1.09 while below 1.0986 - 1.1030 area. Rise above 1.1051 would dampen this bearish expectation.
Monday, May 14, 2007
FOREX MARKET UPDATE 15/05/07
Tuesday May 15, 2007
EUR-USD
1.3546. Current rise should end around 1.3543 or 1.3561. Objectives of this downmove are 1.3527 or 1.3509. A rise above 1.3577 is again bullish.
USD-CHF
1.2191. Corrective dips should ideally halt near 1.2189 or 1.2180 for one more thrust upwards towards 1.2200 - 1.221 area or 1.2228 in extention. Fall below 1.2171 puts it back on a downward path.
USD-JPY
120.35. Current rise should end around 120.28 or 120.52. Objectives of this downmove are 120.12 or 119.88. A rise above 120.68 is again bullish.
GBP-USD
1.9794. Any possible decline should be supported around 1.9768 - 1.9743 zone for rally to above 1.9871. A clear break of 1.9743 will damage this expected rally.
EUR-CHF
1.6513. Current rise should end around 1.6506 or 1.6530. Objectives of this downmove are 1.6488 or 1.6464. A rise above 1.6548 is again bullish.
EUR-JPY
163.03. Current rise should end around 162.92 or 163.30. Objectives of this downmove are 162.65 or 162.27. A rise above 163.57 is again bullish.
EUR-GBP
0.6842. Currently uptrend should end around 0.6856 - 0.6851 area. A correction down to below 0.6827 is expected. A rise above 0.6860 will abort the expected correction.
AUD-USD
0.8322. Our preferred view is for a drift down to 0.8309 or below 0.8295. Resistances is at 0.8297. A rise above 0.8344 would delay but not abort this expected fall.
USD-CAD
1.1059. Market should meet resistance at 1.1080. We expect then an extended move down to 1.1045 -1.0996 area.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
1. Tuesday, May 15th, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UKWe have UK CPI coming out. There will be a few numbers released, but the most important one is probably going to be UK CPI year over year, that's expected to come out at 2.8% versus 3.1% last month. If the number comes out again at 3.1% or higher, that means that inflation is not slowing, and UK will probably have to do at least 1 or even 2 more interest rate hikes this year, so GBP/USD may possibly go up by 100 pips or more in the first 2 hours of the report. If the number comes out at 2.5% or lower, it would be hugely low, and that would mean that inflation is slowing down rather rapidly, so there maybe no need for more rate hikes, and GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Since the price is right now at around 1.9800 on GBP/USD, which is relatively low, I think we have much bigger upside potential on it, than a downside. So keep that in mind. I may possibly use less conservative triggers on this trade, and that will largely depend on where the price is at before the report.
2. Tuesday, May 15th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
Then we have US CPI coming out, which is the inflationary measure for the US. Remember, the US government keeps saying that inflation is their #1 concern when making interest rate decisions, so if the inflation is rather high, US will probably not cut for the next while, and that should be strengthening for the dollar short term. Most important number on this report will probably be the Core CPI month over month, which is expected to come out at around 0.2%, which seems to be a normal rate for the US. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, we may see GBP/USD going down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 0.0% or lower, GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Just remember, that this report will be coming out 4 hours after the UK inflation, and the proper way of trading it may heavily depend on where the UK inflationary figures come out. So be careful of some quick retracements, if this report is conflicting with the UK inflation.
Then we have TIC data coming out of US 30 minutes after the CPI, and we have the New Zealand PPI coming out also. However, both of these are not very good indicators, and trading the TIC data may largely depend on what the CPI numbers do. So I don't even want to talk about these two, I suggest just staying out.
disclaimer
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any views expressed may change without notice.
This document is provided to you for information purposes only and may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose.
EUR-USD
1.3546. Current rise should end around 1.3543 or 1.3561. Objectives of this downmove are 1.3527 or 1.3509. A rise above 1.3577 is again bullish.
USD-CHF
1.2191. Corrective dips should ideally halt near 1.2189 or 1.2180 for one more thrust upwards towards 1.2200 - 1.221 area or 1.2228 in extention. Fall below 1.2171 puts it back on a downward path.
USD-JPY
120.35. Current rise should end around 120.28 or 120.52. Objectives of this downmove are 120.12 or 119.88. A rise above 120.68 is again bullish.
GBP-USD
1.9794. Any possible decline should be supported around 1.9768 - 1.9743 zone for rally to above 1.9871. A clear break of 1.9743 will damage this expected rally.
EUR-CHF
1.6513. Current rise should end around 1.6506 or 1.6530. Objectives of this downmove are 1.6488 or 1.6464. A rise above 1.6548 is again bullish.
EUR-JPY
163.03. Current rise should end around 162.92 or 163.30. Objectives of this downmove are 162.65 or 162.27. A rise above 163.57 is again bullish.
EUR-GBP
0.6842. Currently uptrend should end around 0.6856 - 0.6851 area. A correction down to below 0.6827 is expected. A rise above 0.6860 will abort the expected correction.
AUD-USD
0.8322. Our preferred view is for a drift down to 0.8309 or below 0.8295. Resistances is at 0.8297. A rise above 0.8344 would delay but not abort this expected fall.
USD-CAD
1.1059. Market should meet resistance at 1.1080. We expect then an extended move down to 1.1045 -1.0996 area.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
1. Tuesday, May 15th, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UKWe have UK CPI coming out. There will be a few numbers released, but the most important one is probably going to be UK CPI year over year, that's expected to come out at 2.8% versus 3.1% last month. If the number comes out again at 3.1% or higher, that means that inflation is not slowing, and UK will probably have to do at least 1 or even 2 more interest rate hikes this year, so GBP/USD may possibly go up by 100 pips or more in the first 2 hours of the report. If the number comes out at 2.5% or lower, it would be hugely low, and that would mean that inflation is slowing down rather rapidly, so there maybe no need for more rate hikes, and GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Since the price is right now at around 1.9800 on GBP/USD, which is relatively low, I think we have much bigger upside potential on it, than a downside. So keep that in mind. I may possibly use less conservative triggers on this trade, and that will largely depend on where the price is at before the report.
2. Tuesday, May 15th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
Then we have US CPI coming out, which is the inflationary measure for the US. Remember, the US government keeps saying that inflation is their #1 concern when making interest rate decisions, so if the inflation is rather high, US will probably not cut for the next while, and that should be strengthening for the dollar short term. Most important number on this report will probably be the Core CPI month over month, which is expected to come out at around 0.2%, which seems to be a normal rate for the US. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, we may see GBP/USD going down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 0.0% or lower, GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Just remember, that this report will be coming out 4 hours after the UK inflation, and the proper way of trading it may heavily depend on where the UK inflationary figures come out. So be careful of some quick retracements, if this report is conflicting with the UK inflation.
Then we have TIC data coming out of US 30 minutes after the CPI, and we have the New Zealand PPI coming out also. However, both of these are not very good indicators, and trading the TIC data may largely depend on what the CPI numbers do. So I don't even want to talk about these two, I suggest just staying out.
disclaimer
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any views expressed may change without notice.
This document is provided to you for information purposes only and may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose.
Sunday, May 13, 2007
MARKET ANALYSIS
Monday May 14, 2007
EUR-USD
1.3531. It may attempt a test higher to 1.3531 after which weakness may set it to a drift down to below 1.3486 limit.
USD-CHF
1.2182. Decline should be supported around 1.2162 - 1.2143 zone for rally to above 1.2233. A clear break of 1.2143 will damage this expected rally.
USD-JPY
120.10. It may attempt a test higher to 120.16 after which weakness may set it to a drift down to below 119.63 limit.
GBP-USD
1.9822. Is expected to fall lower than 1.9727. Entry sell point are at 1.9834 or 1.9857 . Stop loss above 1.9857.
EUR-CHF
1.6483. It may attempt a test higher to 1.6485 after which weakness may set it to a drift down to below 1.6437 limit.
EUR-JPY
162.51. It may attempt a test higher to 162.55 after which weakness may set it to a drift down to below 161.53 limit.
EUR-GBP
0.6826. Currently uptrend should end around 0.6843 - 0.6835 area. A correction down to below 0.6810 is expected. A rise above 0.6844 will abort the expected correction.
AUD-USD
0.8317. It should trade lower to 0.8255. Resistances are at 0.8323 and 0.8353. A break of 0.8393 is bullish.
USD-CAD
1.1121. Resistances lie around 1.1145 and 1.1205. It should test lower towards 1.1085 zone. A clear break of 1.1103 would be bearish.
ECONOMIC NEWS ANALYSIS
1. Monday, May 14th, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UKWe have UK PPI coming out, and this number measures inflation in the manufacturing sector in the UK, which contributes around 20% of total inflation in the UK. We have the UK PPI Input, which is basically the prices that manufacturers pay for raw materials, and we have UK PPI output, which basically is what UK manufacturers are charging their wholesalers. Both numbers are coming out for April, and PPI input is expected to rise by 1.0%, and PPI output is expected to rise by around 0.5%. It's hard to say which one is more important, both are pretty important, and we definitely don't want to place trades if both are conflicting by a lot. It's a lot more common to see big jump in the input, rather than output, which is natural, because input is a leading indicator and is a lot harder to predict. Remember, prices of output today will probably depend on what the input prices were few months ago, so the output numbers are usually predicted very well by economists, plus even if the manufacturers have to pay much higher prices for raw materials, they can't always pass it down to their clients, because there is competition, so the output prices seem to be more stable in general. If the prices jump on the input, it doesn't always mean that they will affect the economy as much, because manufacturers may eat the costs. However, output prices will definitely affect the inflation in the country to some degree, so let's focus on the output prices. They are expected at around 0.5% or so. If the number comes out at 1.0% or higher, it would be a very strong psychological number, plus the highest reading in many, many years, so GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If the number comes out at 0.0% or more negative, then it would mean that inflation is slowing, and would be a very big surprise, considering the high oil prices, so GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more. If such triggers I hit, I think we will see a pretty big move, regardless of revisions or conflicts from input prices. I may possibly use a less conservative trigger, and still place a trade, but that will depend on other numbers and the price before the report.
That's all for today happy trading
profxpress
disclaimer
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any views expressed may change without notice.
This document is provided
EUR-USD
1.3531. It may attempt a test higher to 1.3531 after which weakness may set it to a drift down to below 1.3486 limit.
USD-CHF
1.2182. Decline should be supported around 1.2162 - 1.2143 zone for rally to above 1.2233. A clear break of 1.2143 will damage this expected rally.
USD-JPY
120.10. It may attempt a test higher to 120.16 after which weakness may set it to a drift down to below 119.63 limit.
GBP-USD
1.9822. Is expected to fall lower than 1.9727. Entry sell point are at 1.9834 or 1.9857 . Stop loss above 1.9857.
EUR-CHF
1.6483. It may attempt a test higher to 1.6485 after which weakness may set it to a drift down to below 1.6437 limit.
EUR-JPY
162.51. It may attempt a test higher to 162.55 after which weakness may set it to a drift down to below 161.53 limit.
EUR-GBP
0.6826. Currently uptrend should end around 0.6843 - 0.6835 area. A correction down to below 0.6810 is expected. A rise above 0.6844 will abort the expected correction.
AUD-USD
0.8317. It should trade lower to 0.8255. Resistances are at 0.8323 and 0.8353. A break of 0.8393 is bullish.
USD-CAD
1.1121. Resistances lie around 1.1145 and 1.1205. It should test lower towards 1.1085 zone. A clear break of 1.1103 would be bearish.
ECONOMIC NEWS ANALYSIS
1. Monday, May 14th, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UKWe have UK PPI coming out, and this number measures inflation in the manufacturing sector in the UK, which contributes around 20% of total inflation in the UK. We have the UK PPI Input, which is basically the prices that manufacturers pay for raw materials, and we have UK PPI output, which basically is what UK manufacturers are charging their wholesalers. Both numbers are coming out for April, and PPI input is expected to rise by 1.0%, and PPI output is expected to rise by around 0.5%. It's hard to say which one is more important, both are pretty important, and we definitely don't want to place trades if both are conflicting by a lot. It's a lot more common to see big jump in the input, rather than output, which is natural, because input is a leading indicator and is a lot harder to predict. Remember, prices of output today will probably depend on what the input prices were few months ago, so the output numbers are usually predicted very well by economists, plus even if the manufacturers have to pay much higher prices for raw materials, they can't always pass it down to their clients, because there is competition, so the output prices seem to be more stable in general. If the prices jump on the input, it doesn't always mean that they will affect the economy as much, because manufacturers may eat the costs. However, output prices will definitely affect the inflation in the country to some degree, so let's focus on the output prices. They are expected at around 0.5% or so. If the number comes out at 1.0% or higher, it would be a very strong psychological number, plus the highest reading in many, many years, so GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If the number comes out at 0.0% or more negative, then it would mean that inflation is slowing, and would be a very big surprise, considering the high oil prices, so GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more. If such triggers I hit, I think we will see a pretty big move, regardless of revisions or conflicts from input prices. I may possibly use a less conservative trigger, and still place a trade, but that will depend on other numbers and the price before the report.
That's all for today happy trading
profxpress
disclaimer
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any views expressed may change without notice.
This document is provided
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